To understand the trade war currently unfolding between Ecuador and Colombia, you have to understand the man on the other side of the border. Gustavo Petro is not just Colombia’s president; he is the most significant ideological shift in Colombian history.
Here is an exploration of who Petro is, his “guerrilla to president” history, and why his friction with Daniel Noboa was almost inevitable.
1. The Background: From “Aureliano” to President
Gustavo Petro (born 1960) is Colombia’s first-ever left-wing president. His backstory reads like a Latin American novel:
- The Guerrilla Years: At 17, Petro joined the M-19, an urban guerrilla movement. His codename was “Aureliano,” after the character in One Hundred Years of Solitude. He wasn’t a front-line fighter but a community organizer and ideologue.
- The Prison Term: In 1985, he was arrested by the military for illegal possession of arms and spent 18 months in prison, where he claims he was tortured.
- The Transition: After the M-19 laid down their arms and became a political party in 1990, Petro transitioned to mainstream politics. He served as a congressman, senator, and a highly controversial Mayor of Bogotá.
2. His Politics: “The Politics of Life”
Petro views the world through the lens of Climate Change and Social Justice. He famously argues that the traditional labels of “Left” vs “Right” are dead, replaced by:
- The Politics of Life: Renewable energy, protecting the Amazon, and land reform for the poor.
- The Politics of Death: Economic reliance on fossil fuels (oil and coal).
This makes him a radical outlier in Colombia, a country that has historically been the United States’ staunchest, most conservative ally in the region.
3. Petro vs. the Rest of Latin America
To understand how Petro fits into the neighborhood, think of him as part of the “New Pink Tide,” but with his own unique flavor:
| Leader | Comparison to Petro |
| Lula (Brazil) | Petro is more radical on climate. While Lula still wants to drill for oil, Petro has banned all new oil exploration licenses in Colombia—a move that shocked markets. |
| Boric (Chile) | They are both “New Left” (focused on social issues like feminism and ecology), but Petro is much more confrontational with traditional military and business elites. |
| Maduro (Venezuela) | Unlike the Venezuelan regime, Petro was elected in a free and fair democratic process. However, he has restored diplomatic ties with Maduro, which irritates conservative leaders like Noboa. |
| Noboa (Ecuador) | They are total opposites. Noboa is a young, business-centric, “security-first” leader. Petro is an older, academic, “social-reform-first” leader. |
4. Why the Friction with Ecuador?
The current trade war isn’t just about money; it’s about Security Philosophy:
- Noboa’s View: He sees Petro’s “Total Peace” policy—which involves negotiating with criminal gangs rather than just shooting them—as the reason why drugs and violence are spilling over into Ecuador.
- Petro’s View: He believes Ecuador is being “authoritarian” and “inhumane” (referencing Noboa’s raid on the Mexican embassy and treatment of former VP Jorge Glas).
5. Where he stands today (January 2026)
As of this week, Petro is in a “retaliation” mode. By cutting off electricity exports to Ecuador and hitting back with 30% tariffs, he is reminding Noboa that Colombia holds the keys to Ecuador’s power grid.
However, Petro is also facing a tough 2026 election year in Colombia. His popularity is hovering around 37%, and he is barred from reelection. He is currently pushing for a “Constituent Assembly” to rewrite the Colombian constitution, a move that critics say is a “power grab” to extend his influence.
Summary / Resumen
English: Gustavo Petro is a former M-19 guerrilla turned economist who became Colombia’s first leftist president in 2022. He prioritizes environmentalism and “Total Peace” negotiations over military crackdowns. This puts him in direct conflict with Ecuador’s President Noboa, who favors a “hard-line” approach. Today, Petro is using trade and energy as leverage to defend his ideology, even as he faces internal pressure to rewrite Colombia’s constitution before his term ends in August.
Español: Gustavo Petro es un exguerrillero del M-19 convertido en economista que se convirtió en el primer presidente de izquierda de Colombia en 2022. Prioriza el ecologismo y las negociaciones de “Paz Total” sobre las medidas militares drásticas. Esto lo pone en conflicto directo con el presidente de Ecuador, Noboa, quien favorece un enfoque de “mano dura”. Hoy, Petro utiliza el comercio y la energÃa como herramientas para defender su ideologÃa, mientras enfrenta presión interna para reescribir la constitución de Colombia antes de que termine su mandato en agosto.
The standoff between Daniel Noboa and Gustavo Petro is more than a trade dispute; it is a fundamental clash of two opposing visions for how to handle crime, the economy, and the role of the state.
Here is a side-by-side comparison of the two models currently fighting for dominance on the 600km border.
1. The Security Philosophies
This is the core of the conflict. Noboa believes in “total war,” while Petro believes in “total peace.”
| Feature | Noboa’s “Plan Fénix” (Ecuador) | Petro’s “Paz Total” (Colombia) |
| Core Goal | Elimination of “Narco-terrorists” through military force. | Ending conflict through dialogue and social investment. |
| Key Tactic | Declaring an “Internal Armed Conflict” and deploying the military to streets and prisons. | Negotiating ceasefires with guerrilla groups (ELN, FARC dissidents) and gangs. |
| Drug Policy | Hard-line interdiction; viewing drug trafficking as a direct military threat to the state. | Focus on “human security,” crop substitution for farmers, and treating drug use as a health issue. |
| Extradition | Fully supported and recently approved by referendum to send kingpins to the U.S. | Historically skeptical; Petro prefers that criminals face justice and tell the truth within Colombia. |
2. The Economic Models
The trade war is the physical manifestation of these two different economic worldviews.
- Noboa’s Coercive Trade: Noboa is using “Trump-style” tactics—unilateral 30% tariffs—as a lever to force security concessions. He views the $1 billion trade deficit with Colombia as a strategic weakness that must be corrected to protect Ecuadorian industry.
- Petro’s Institutional Reciprocity: Petro relies on traditional diplomatic “reciprocity.” His response was clinical: if you tax us, we tax you. However, he also used the “Energy Weapon” by cutting off electricity, a move designed to show Ecuador that its “hard-line” stance has a very high domestic cost (blackouts).
3. The Role of the United States
This is perhaps the most visible “diplomatic” difference between the two men.
- Noboa (The New Ally): Since early 2025, Noboa has aligned Ecuador closely with the U.S. (specifically the Trump administration). He has welcomed U.S. military training, intelligence sharing, and even horseback rides with high-ranking U.S. officials. He wants Ecuador to be the primary U.S. partner in the Andes.
- Petro (The Skeptical Neighbor): Petro has a strained relationship with Washington. He has criticized the U.S.-led “War on Drugs” as a failure and frequently clashes with U.S. officials over his lenient approach toward guerrilla groups.
4. Why they are “clashing” at the border right now
The border between Tulcán (Ecuador) and Ipiales (Colombia) is currently a bottleneck of chaos because of these two models:
- Noboa’s Complaint: “I am spending millions to put my army on the border, but the criminals just run across to Colombia where Petro’s government is ‘dialoguing’ with them instead of arresting them.”
- Petro’s Rebuttal: “We have seized 200 tons of cocaine and destroyed 18,000 labs. We are doing the work, but we won’t follow a ‘failed’ military-only model that creates more violence.”
Summary / Resumen
English: The conflict between Ecuador and Colombia is a battle between two extremes: Noboa’s “Military/Security First” model and Petro’s “Social/Peace First” model. Noboa uses tariffs to demand more “mano dura” (iron fist) from his neighbor, while Petro uses energy and trade retaliation to defend his “Paz Total” policy. The result is a diplomatic “freeze” that threatens regional energy stability and increases costs for consumers in both nations.
Español: El conflicto entre Ecuador y Colombia es una batalla entre dos extremos: el modelo de Noboa de “Seguridad y Fuerza Militar” y el modelo de Petro de “Paz Total y Social”. Noboa utiliza los aranceles para exigir más “mano dura” de su vecino, mientras que Petro utiliza represalias energéticas y comerciales para defender su polÃtica de diálogo. El resultado es un “congelamiento” diplomático que amenaza la estabilidad energética regional y aumenta los costos para los consumidores en ambas naciones.
What to watch for this week:
- The Rumichaca Bridge: Watch for reports of “logistical collapse” as trucks rush to cross before the Feb 1st tariff deadline.
- Energy Rationing: If the drought continues in the Paute basin, the loss of Colombian electricity may lead to scheduled power cuts in Ecuador as early as February.
