If El Niño is the “marathon” of weather (lasting months or years), the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) is the “sprint.” It is a massive, fast-moving pulse of clouds and rain that circles the globe every 30 to 60 days.
For people in Ecuador, the MJO is often the “hidden hand” behind a sudden week of torrential rain or a strangely dry “break” in the middle of the rainy season.
1. What is the MJO?
The MJO is an eastward-moving “wave” of atmospheric energy. It consists of two parts:
- The Enhanced Phase (The Wet Pulse): A massive cluster of thunderstorms and low pressure. When this pulse passes over South America, it acts like a giant vacuum, pulling moisture in and dumping heavy rain.
- The Suppressed Phase (The Dry Pulse): Following right behind the wet phase is a zone of high pressure and clear skies. This “brings the sun out” and can lead to unseasonably dry, hot weeks.
2. Why It Matters to Ecuador
While El Niño sets the “background” for the year, the MJO dictates the timing.
- Intensifying El Niño: If the MJO’s “wet phase” arrives while an El Niño is already happening, it can turn a normal rainy week into a catastrophic flood. In fact, a strong MJO pulse in March 2023 was a major trigger for the “Coastal El Niño” that hammered Ecuador and Peru.
- Energy and Reservoirs: Ecuador’s electricity depends on rain in the Highlands. If the MJO enters a “suppressed phase” over the Andes, it can lead to the reservoir drops and power cuts we’ve seen in recent years.
- Agriculture: Farmers watch for the MJO (often without knowing its name) to time their planting. The “wet pulse” provides the soaking rain seeds need to germinate.
3. Current Situation: January/February 2026
As of late January 2026, the MJO is currently very active.
- Current Phase: The MJO pulse has recently amplified in the Western Pacific and is rapidly propagating toward the Western Hemisphere (Americas).
- What to Expect: Over the next 1–2 weeks (early February), this “wet pulse” is expected to center over South America. For the Ecuadorian coast and the Northern Sierra, this often means an increase in convective rainfall (afternoon thunderstorms) and cloudier skies.
4. What to Look For
You don’t need a PhD in meteorology to spot the MJO’s influence. Watch for these “MJO Markers”:
- The “Grey Week”: If the weather suddenly shifts from bright and sunny to 5–7 days of persistent humidity and afternoon deluges, you are likely in the Enhanced Phase.
- The Wind Shift: Sailors and fishermen often notice the “Trade Winds” weakening or even reversing (blowing from the west) just as the rainy pulse arrives.
- The 40-Day Echo: If you had a massive storm on January 1st, and then another one around February 10th, you are seeing the 40-day cycle of the MJO in action.
Summary / Resumen
English: The Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) is a 30–60 day cycle of tropical weather that moves eastward around the world. In its “wet phase,” it brings heavy rain and thunderstorms to Ecuador; in its “dry phase,” it brings clear skies. As of late January 2026, a strong MJO pulse is moving toward the Americas, which will likely trigger more frequent rains across the Ecuadorian coast and Andes in the first half of February.
Español: La Oscilación de Madden-Julian (MJO) es un ciclo climático tropical de 30 a 60 dÃas que se desplaza hacia el este alrededor del mundo. En su “fase húmeda”, trae fuertes lluvias y tormentas a Ecuador; en su “fase seca”, trae cielos despejados. A finales de enero de 2026, un fuerte pulso de la MJO se desplaza hacia las Américas, lo que probablemente activará lluvias más frecuentes en la costa y los Andes ecuatorianos durante la primera quincena de febrero.
Quick Links & Fact Checks:
- Track the Pulse: TheNOAA Climate Prediction Centerprovides weekly “MJO Updates” with phase maps.
- Local Impact:INAMHIoften issues “Alertas Meteorológicas” when a wet MJO phase aligns with local moisture, signaling high flood risks.
- Academic Context: Research fromRecalde-Coronel et al.shows that the MJO can increase rainfall in Western Tropical South America by 20–50% above normal.
